Shy-Campanile
0x7f5b9376ed23c93d1f1e4be5b5e88f875065b202
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$1.16
Total PnL
$126.00
Realised
$327.21
Win rate
30%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
70 shares @ 18.0¢·now 1.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.16
$-11.45
- YES
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.50–$1.75 in June?
690 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-8.90
- YES
Will a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in June?
690 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-33.10
- YES
Will a dozen eggs cost <$1.50 in June?
690 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
- YES
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in June?
311 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-8.34
- YES
Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after August 2026 meeting?
249 shares @ 25.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-64.37
- YES
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in June?
214 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-9.67
- YES
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?
80 shares @ 39.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-31.80
- YES
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in July?
48 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.28
- NO
No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after August 2026 meeting?
40 shares @ 34.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-13.84
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in July?$88.00Aug 1, 04:51 UTC
- TRADESELL100kt meteor strike in 2026?$55.90Jul 14, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in July?$1.42Jul 14, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in July?$5.51Jul 14, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in July?$1.94Jul 14, 12:14 UTC
- TRADESELL100kt meteor strike in 2026?$4.79Jul 11, 22:38 UTC
- TRADESELL100kt meteor strike in 2026?$21.35Jul 10, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in June?$6.11Jul 9, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $1.50–$1.75 in June?$1.07Jul 9, 20:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost <$1.50 in June?$2.73Jul 9, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$5.10Jul 7, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$18.00Jul 7, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost <$1.50 in June?$0.17Jul 6, 17:38 UTC
- TRADESELL100kt meteor strike in 2026?$0.25Jul 5, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in June?$5.55Jul 1, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $1.50–$1.75 in June?$2.26Jul 1, 20:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost <$1.50 in June?$1.66Jul 1, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost <$1.50 in June?$1.88Jul 1, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $1.75–$2.00 in June?$5.32Jul 1, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $1.50–$1.75 in June?$1.24Jul 1, 19:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $9.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 20, 14:51 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 04:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.