Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

149

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-172.39

Realised

$-6.58

Win rate

149 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 149

DOWN
Solana Up or Down - August 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
56 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
11 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
11 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
8 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET
7 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
7 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
5 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
4 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
4 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
4 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - August 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$0.95Aug 15, 21:15 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$1.03Aug 15, 21:15 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$1.07Aug 15, 21:13 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$2.44Aug 15, 13:21 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.04Aug 15, 13:15 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET$1.04Aug 15, 13:05 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$1.96Aug 15, 02:51 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$1.03Aug 15, 02:45 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$2.70Aug 14, 15:51 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$2.17Aug 14, 15:46 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET$1.04Aug 14, 15:45 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET$1.04Aug 14, 15:40 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$2.33Aug 13, 19:16 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET$1.03Aug 13, 19:15 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$1.04Aug 13, 19:10 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$1.04Aug 13, 12:35 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$1.67Aug 13, 03:41 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$1.03Aug 13, 03:35 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET$1.03Aug 13, 03:30 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET$1.03Aug 13, 03:25 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

69/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 149 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

149 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity69 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry95 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk22 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 36
Avg trade size: $1.03
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 10, 19:40 UTC
Last active: Aug 15, 21:15 UTC
Win rate sample: 149 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:20:31 UTC·src:Polymarket Data