Agitated-Ordination
0x7fa1507e1803272c26d91fb263c507b995d3deeb
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$110.72
Total PnL
$-33.03
Realised
$10.94
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?
48 shares @ 75.3¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.91
$4.87
- YES
Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?
74 shares @ 28.8¢·now 17.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.95
$-8.40
- YES
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?
32 shares @ 38.5¢·now 22.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$7.05
$-5.28
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
31 shares @ 24.5¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.22
$-1.38
- YES
Hurupay FDV above $5M one day after launch?
18 shares @ 45.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.77
$-3.33
- YES
Hurupay FDV above $10M one day after launch?
18 shares @ 18.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.41
$1.17
- YES
Hurupay FDV above $40M one day after launch?
63 shares @ 10.7¢·now 6.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$4.23
$-2.53
- YES
Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?
29 shares @ 43.5¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.62
$-8.98
- YES
Will Milva die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?
6 shares @ 22.0¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$3.43
$2.02
- HENAN FC
Spread: Henan FC (-1.5)
16 shares @ 18.4¢·now 20.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$3.27
$0.27
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 28?$2.04Jul 28, 17:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 28?$2.22Jul 28, 16:06 UTC
- REDEEMValorant: BESTIA vs Contra (BO5) - VCL Latin America Finals Playoffs$0.00Jul 28, 15:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$3.09Jul 28, 15:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 26?$0.00Jul 27, 17:05 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: A Great Chaos vs mellren (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #7 Playoffs$0.00Jul 27, 17:05 UTC
- REDEEMSet Handicap: Blockx (-1.5) vs Assche (+1.5)$0.00Jul 27, 17:05 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: Viking FK (-2.5)$0.00Jul 27, 17:05 UTC
- REDEEMSpread: FCSB (-2.5)$0.00Jul 27, 17:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-06-12?$4.84Jul 27, 05:15 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Fluxo vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America Series 4 Playoffs$11.90Jul 26, 22:40 UTC
- REDEEMMap Handicap: QUA (-1.5) vs NEW VISION (+1.5)$0.00Jul 26, 18:02 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: DetonatioN FocusMe vs GAM Esports - Game 1 Winner$0.00Jul 26, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 26?$1.98Jul 26, 15:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 26?$1.88Jul 26, 13:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 26?$0.20Jul 26, 12:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on July 26?$0.89Jul 26, 12:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 26?$1.62Jul 26, 12:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on July 26?$0.08Jul 26, 12:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYSet Handicap: Blockx (-1.5) vs Assche (+1.5)$3.10Jul 26, 10:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
23 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $1.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 04:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.