Wallet digest

active

Activity score

41/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-18.1M

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

JETS
Panthers vs. Jets
1075788 shares @ 49.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 26, 2025
$0.00
$-534.3K
BRAVES
Cubs vs. Braves
905565 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025
$0.00
$-552.4K
PHILLIES
Phillies vs. Nationals
905247 shares @ 62.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2025
$0.00
$-567.0K
DOLPHINS
Dolphins vs. Browns
843224 shares @ 43.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 26, 2025
$0.00
$-366.7K
MARINERS
Mariners vs. Orioles
838665 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2025
$0.00
$-469.3K
PHILLIES
Orioles vs. Phillies
830494 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2025
$0.00
$-506.6K
RAIDERS
Raiders vs. Commanders
803537 shares @ 41.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 28, 2025
$0.00
$-330.5K
YANKEES
Tigers vs. Yankees
769913 shares @ 58.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 16, 2025
$0.00
$-449.0K
MARINERS
Mariners vs. Rays
747545 shares @ 53.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 10, 2025
$0.00
$-402.9K
DODGERS
Dodgers vs. Reds
703561 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2025
$0.00
$-415.1K

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$1.8KJul 7, 00:51 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.7KJul 6, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.4KJul 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.3KJul 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.7KJul 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.8KJul 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.8KJul 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.0KJun 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.0KJun 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.8KJun 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.4KJun 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.6KJun 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.8KJun 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.2KJun 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.4KJun 23, 14:57 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.7KJun 22, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.0KJun 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.8KJun 20, 00:37 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.7KJun 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.7KJun 18, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

4/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity15 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry97 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk41 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 3
Avg trade size: $0.50
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Mar 27, 11:28 UTC
Last active: Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 06:04:38 UTC·src:Polymarket Data