Shoddy-Postage
0x7fc6d881bd3d7e3c6d868828a58da17bf92a1eab
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
47
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-635.59
Realised
$149.35
Win rate
67%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 47- YES
Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland?
3780 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$0.00
$-7.56
- YES
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
2239 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$0.00
$-92.27
- NO
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 7?
1380 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2025$0.00
$-12.80
- YES
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December?
494 shares @ 7.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-36.00
- NO
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21?
388 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2025$0.00
$-15.15
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31?
350 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-21.97
- YES
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $440B and $445B on January 31?
340 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.04
- YES
Trump issues 100+ Executive Orders orders on Day 1?
320 shares @ 16.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2025$0.00
$-52.40
- YES
Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?
306 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2025$0.00
$-26.52
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?$0.82Aug 25, 12:52 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?$11.50Aug 25, 12:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? $68.53Jul 28, 14:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?$1.5KJun 2, 00:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robert Sarah be the next pope?$0.06May 8, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robert Sarah be the next pope?$0.57May 8, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robert Sarah be the next pope?$0.67May 8, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robert Sarah be the next pope?$0.27May 8, 16:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland?$9.45May 8, 09:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland?$17.01May 8, 00:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland?$10.13Apr 12, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above $84,000 on March 7?$1.00Mar 7, 16:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above $84,000 on March 7?$1.00Mar 7, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 7?$1.44Mar 7, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Mar 7?$3.60Mar 7, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above $84,000 on March 7?$5.40Mar 7, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above $84,000 on March 7?$5.40Mar 7, 10:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above $99,000 on February 28?$11.55Feb 22, 23:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Putin" at CPAC conference on Saturday?$29.97Feb 22, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Elon" 5 or more times at CPAC conference on Saturday?$25.60Feb 22, 14:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $38.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 19, 02:27 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 25, 12:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.