Rough-Polyester
0x7fe5b8bcbe7b2425b6f30776f19382a68f0dc71c
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-124.81
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-11.33
- NO
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?
28 shares @ 33.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-9.32
- AURORA
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner
25 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-9.94
- YES
Will "Scream 7" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 65m?
23 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.80
- YES
Will Leavitt say "State of the Union" during the next White House Press Briefing?
22 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-6.48
- NO
Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.84
- TEAM LIQUID
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner
15 shares @ 78.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-11.54
- AURORA
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2
14 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.35
- NO
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?
14 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.66
- NO
Will Miguel Lopez get engaged on Love is Blind: Ohio?
12 shares @ 54.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.78
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March?$32.00Apr 26, 14:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March?$31.97Mar 27, 04:48 UTC
- REWARD$0.14Mar 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 9m?$0.03Mar 15, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?$1.19Mar 15, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 8.5m?$1.47Mar 15, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 9m?$1.97Mar 15, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Hoppers" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 26m and 29m?$3.59Mar 15, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$4.30Mar 15, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?$4.84Mar 15, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on April 30?$4.73Mar 15, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 7.5m and 8m?$5.36Mar 15, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLTom Lee mindshare all time high by March 31?$5.49Mar 15, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?$5.92Mar 15, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLAWS service disrupted by March 31?$6.31Mar 15, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Reminders of Him" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 22m?$6.84Mar 15, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8.5m and 9m?$6.93Mar 15, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLPenn State Nittany Lions vs. Akron Zips$7.35Mar 15, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$8.09Mar 15, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$8.76Mar 15, 19:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $9.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 15, 19:34 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 26, 14:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.