Wallet profile

Hospitable-Equinox

0x7ff2b7428b46831c11417620b6ee714e7bc5bfb4

activity 46/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

46/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

37

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-5.7K

Realised

$-31.40

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 37

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.41May 21, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.80May 20, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.90May 19, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.23May 16, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.04May 15, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.75May 13, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.65May 12, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.40May 9, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.76May 8, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.25May 7, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.57May 6, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.75May 2, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.87May 1, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.64Apr 30, 05:30 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.38Apr 30, 05:30 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$4.67Apr 28, 00:30 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$1.36Apr 27, 00:30 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$2.40Apr 25, 00:30 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$4.35Apr 24, 00:30 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$3.77Apr 23, 00:30 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100
read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal
pass

11 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.

Resolved-only track record
block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity27 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence7 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry22 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk54 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
11
Avg trade size
$50.00
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Feb 28, 23:46 UTC
Last active
May 21, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample
2 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 16:38:49 UTC·src:Polymarket Data