Early-Bricklaying
0x800a5a9464f5f21d7240a7d7fd9d92336825c0ee
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
11
Open notional
$216.82
Total PnL
$26.27
Realised
$25.76
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
106 shares @ 88.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$96.99
$3.71
- NO
Macron out by June 30, 2026?
40 shares @ 89.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$40.00
$4.32
- NO
Will France pass a national budget by December 31?
58 shares @ 55.9¢·now 68.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.96
$7.33
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
20 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$20.00
$1.20
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
30 shares @ 8.7¢·now 30.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$9.25
$6.65
- YES
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election?
2599 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$6.50
$-10.95
- YES
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?
231 shares @ 1.1¢·now 1.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$2.42
$-0.13
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
30 shares @ 24.7¢·now 3.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.94
$-6.45
- YES
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election?
300 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$0.75
$-0.35
- YES
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
12 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.92
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.