Gloomy-Solicitation
0x801eb0dc947e0c3703d35feb011a3d9675c0b401
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
75
Open notional
$239.28
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$28.89
Win rate
2%
60 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 75- NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 August 17-23?
40 shares @ 73.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Aug 24, 2026$32.88
$3.43
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
41 shares @ 73.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$29.01
$-0.61
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
37 shares @ 67.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.05
$2.05
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in August?
48 shares @ 50.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$26.83
$2.66
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in August?
23 shares @ 86.0¢·now 98.2¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$22.84
$2.84
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 22?
52 shares @ 46.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 22, 2026$22.78
$-1.31
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?
53 shares @ 46.5¢·now 38.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$20.57
$-4.30
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?
25 shares @ 66.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$19.94
$3.18
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?
35 shares @ 43.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$15.16
$0.17
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
28 shares @ 54.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.86
$-5.14
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 22?$25.00Aug 18, 10:28 UTC
- REDEEMITF M15 Maanshan 7 Men: Hanlei Lu vs Vladimir Osminkin$38.97Aug 18, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF M15 Maanshan 7 Men: Hanlei Lu vs Vladimir Osminkin$25.00Aug 18, 04:21 UTC
- REDEEMBaltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays$40.21Aug 18, 01:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?$1.01Aug 17, 22:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?$13.42Aug 17, 21:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?$13.42Aug 17, 21:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?$25.16Aug 17, 21:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 18?$25.80Aug 17, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,000 August 17-23?$30.01Aug 17, 17:26 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on August 17?$41.27Aug 17, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down on August 17?$37.86Aug 17, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBaltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays$25.01Aug 17, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on August 17?$29.98Aug 17, 09:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 August 10-16?$38.68Aug 17, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 17?$25.05Aug 16, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 16?$41.39Aug 16, 16:14 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$0.78Aug 14, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBoston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5$25.02Aug 14, 13:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?$3.98Aug 14, 13:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
61/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
2% win rate over 60 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
60 closed markets, 2% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $19.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 16:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 10:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 60 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.