False-Thongs
0x80269b5bac54d7018cd6184d278cfa6a8f064886
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$107.20
Total PnL
$-39.92
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on July 10?
93 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$93.09
$0.09
- NO
Will Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
14 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$14.11
$-0.09
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on February 23?
700 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on February 22?
667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 10?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 12?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on January 19?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- WALTON
Mexican Open: Adam Walton vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
10 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-4.45
- COLLARINI
Tigre 2: Daniel Dutra da Silva vs Andrea Collarini
9 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- GRIGOR DIMITROV
Miami Open: Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrov
8 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-4.70
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,500 on July 10?$93.01Jul 10, 08:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Zachary Reese vs. Ryan Gandra (Middleweight, Early Prelims)$2.88Jul 10, 07:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?$96.10Jul 10, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle at >$115 in June?$96.00Jun 27, 11:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $156 Week of June 22 2026?$96.10Jun 27, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $156 Week of June 22 2026?$96.00Jun 26, 07:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$14.21Jun 26, 06:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?$82.08Jun 26, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?$82.00May 31, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?$81.24May 31, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 30?$81.02May 30, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?$14.20May 30, 05:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May 28?$15.27May 30, 05:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28?$80.08May 30, 05:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28?$80.01May 28, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May 28?$15.25May 28, 04:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?$95.10May 28, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?$95.01May 27, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Shimelis Abdisa be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$14.20May 27, 11:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26?$110.11May 27, 11:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $81.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 18, 03:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 08:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.