Muted-Catastrophe
0x80305122725bf51a5ad29c2c191ce543475bcc0d
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$15.26
Total PnL
$-194.83
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 14?
15 shares @ 65.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$15.26
$5.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6?
173 shares @ 8.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 13?
84 shares @ 77.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-64.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 19?
62 shares @ 27.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-17.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14?
49 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7?
41 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-13.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 18?
33 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-17.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 24?
29 shares @ 34.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 17?
23 shares @ 85.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-19.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10?
21 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 14?$10.17Jul 14, 02:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 14?$3.01Jul 14, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 14?$10.16Jul 14, 02:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 14?$5.77Jul 13, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 14?$5.19Jul 13, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on July 14?$6.24Jul 13, 19:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 13?$25.54Jul 13, 16:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 13?$8.27Jul 13, 04:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 13?$1.49Jul 13, 04:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 13?$8.14Jul 13, 02:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 13?$1.52Jul 12, 19:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 13?$40.46Jul 12, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on July 13?$23.26Jul 12, 19:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?$43.66Jul 12, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?$30.47Jul 12, 02:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 11?$38.04Jul 11, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 11?$30.32Jul 11, 03:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 11?$27.11Jul 11, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 11?$30.67Jul 11, 03:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 11?$25.39Jul 11, 03:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $15.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 18:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 02:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.