0x804d3be809d9ec275d53b60c3c2c0a33028dcf86
0x804d3be809d9ec275d53b60c3c2c0a33028dcf86
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
69
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-137.91
Realised
$-7.04
Win rate
60%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 69- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on May 3?
200 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.42
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C or below on May 13?
100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 30?
100 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 16°C on May 3?
100 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on May 1?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on April 30?
100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on May 5?
100 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on May 4?
100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 5?
100 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 19?
92 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.29
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 15?$6.27Jul 15, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 14?$11.88Jul 14, 03:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 14?$11.76Jul 14, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 14?$25.19Jul 14, 02:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 14?$2.87Jul 14, 02:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 14?$22.42Jul 14, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 14?$23.32Jul 14, 02:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 13?$18.34Jul 13, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 13?$5.00Jul 13, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 13?$7.74Jul 13, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 12?$14.86Jul 11, 15:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 11?$14.89Jul 11, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 11?$10.33Jul 11, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 11?$6.08Jul 11, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 11?$4.25Jul 11, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 11?$7.14Jul 11, 07:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 11?$7.13Jul 11, 07:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 11?$6.25Jul 11, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?$0.72Jul 5, 15:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 British Grand Prix?$0.74Jul 5, 14:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 14:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 11:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.