Vibrant-Helium
0x804fcdb651becf24b43a3e61eed82c71f53f6a35
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
44
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-735.06
Realised
$27.49
Win rate
43%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 44- YES
Will Lady Gaga win 3 Grammys?
4000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in January 2026?
2089 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- NO
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?
1236 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-24.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
US strikes Iran by Feb 28 Odds >30% by Friday?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - February 3, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
453 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$0.00Feb 28, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$0.00Feb 28, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$0.00Feb 28, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$0.00Feb 28, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$0.00Feb 28, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$0.00Feb 28, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$0.00Feb 28, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$2.00Feb 28, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - February 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$5.00Feb 28, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$10.00Feb 28, 20:25 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$17.22Feb 28, 20:25 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET$0.00Feb 28, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET$3.00Feb 28, 20:15 UTC
- TRADESELLKhamenei seen in public by March 4?$3.33Feb 28, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$4.00Feb 28, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei seen in public by March 4?$4.00Feb 28, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET$2.00Feb 28, 20:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$0.00Feb 28, 20:08 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$8.35Feb 28, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET$5.00Feb 28, 20:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $13.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 8, 21:08 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 28, 20:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.