Wallet profile

Subtle-Initialise

0x80612430064c1bc61872aba9c42fcf920aa0a32b

activity 54/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

54/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

7

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-9.4K

Realised

$301.74

Win rate

67%

3 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$99.96Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$88.12Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$63.48Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$86.75Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$141.30Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$169.39Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$25.78Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$40.79Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$127.20Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$4.23Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$19.41Jun 18, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$174.53Jun 16, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$5.28Jun 13, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$36.90Jun 12, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$34.27Jun 1, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$165.45May 31, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$16.99May 30, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$103.03May 27, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$38.52May 25, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$3.36May 24, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

24/100
read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

Thin resolved sample

Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.

Elevated mirror risk

Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

67% win rate over 3 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
review

18 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.

Resolved-only track record
review

3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity32 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence10 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry71 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk62 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
18
Avg trade size
$514.08
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
May 10, 20:09 UTC
Last active
Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
Win rate sample
3 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 06:04:13 UTC·src:Polymarket Data