Short-Crane
0x8097b7a543594cdf98453952bc85f88a0f978a5f
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-32.8K
Realised
$-461.26
Win rate
28%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow as the next Fed chair?
50421 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.42
- DODGERS
Dodgers vs. Rockies
17788 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 26, 2025$0.00
$-177.88
- YES
Will Mexico win on 2025-11-18?
1559 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2025$0.00
$-732.82
- GUARDIANS
Guardians vs. White Sox
1357 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2025$0.00
$-786.83
- BILIBILI GAMING
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO1)
1312 shares @ 63.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 18, 2025$0.00
$-830.73
- PACERS
Pacers vs. Pistons
1283 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 18, 2025$0.00
$-142.70
- KNICKS
Knicks vs. Suns
1270 shares @ 42.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-542.16
- GEN.G
LoL: Cloud9 vs Gen.G (BO1)
1101 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-737.70
- YES
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-01-10?
1076 shares @ 43.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-465.00
- YES
Will Mozambique win on 2025-11-17?
1015 shares @ 49.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 17, 2025$0.00
$-505.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKBO: Samsung Lions vs. KT Wiz$3.04Jun 10, 09:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GV CD San José vs. CD Real Tomayapo end in a draw?$2.77Jun 10, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYCincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres$142.81Jun 10, 04:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$142.99Jun 10, 04:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYMilwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics$25.54Jun 10, 04:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?$152.88Jun 10, 04:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Estonia vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$36.36Jun 9, 20:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sweden vs. Italy end in a draw?$29.63Jun 9, 19:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Belarus vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw?$25.00Jun 9, 19:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw?$32.00Jun 9, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethiopia vs. Malawi end in a draw?$25.81Jun 9, 18:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw?$29.63Jun 9, 17:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw?$5.65Jun 9, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iraq vs. Venezuela end in a draw?$8.17Jun 9, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09?$8.20Jun 9, 10:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands vs. Poland end in a draw?$8.21Jun 9, 10:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iceland vs. Spain end in a draw?$8.22Jun 9, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France vs. Ireland end in a draw?$8.21Jun 9, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England vs. Ukraine end in a draw?$8.24Jun 9, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Togo vs. Benin end in a draw?$8.16Jun 9, 10:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
28% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $17.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 10:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 10, 09:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.