Belated-Adobe
0x80c74b57b84101a91bbbec4e2910777ba5576591
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$45.04
Total PnL
$-7.71
Realised
$-7.70
Win rate
19%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
7 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$6.53
$0.03
- NO
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025?
6 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$6.36
$0.03
- YES
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?
6 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$5.93
$0.05
- NO
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.36
$0.09
- NO
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1 shares @ 96.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.35
$0.04
- NO
Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year?
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.28
$0.09
- NO
Will 01A1 have a #1 AI model this year?
1 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.27
$0.11
- NO
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025?
1 shares @ 94.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.24
$0.07
- NO
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1 shares @ 97.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.22
$0.03
- NO
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?
1 shares @ 98.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.21
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea in 2025?$6.33Dec 22, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out in 2025?$6.50Dec 22, 13:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$2.2KOct 1, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$2.2KOct 1, 14:42 UTC
- TRADESELLFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$2.8KOct 1, 11:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$2.8KOct 1, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the top AI model on September 30?$5.88Sep 27, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30?$1.13May 27, 16:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?$1.26May 27, 16:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet less than 250 times April 4 - 11?$1.14Apr 10, 15:48 UTC
- REDEEMNets vs. Spurs$0.00Mar 30, 16:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30?$23.86Mar 30, 16:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta have the top AI model on June 30?$15.79Mar 30, 16:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30?$15.98Mar 30, 16:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30?$20.27Mar 30, 16:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?$23.14Mar 30, 16:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?$25.05Mar 30, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?$26.00Mar 26, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?$25.00Mar 26, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30?$25.00Mar 26, 23:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
37/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
19% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $222.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 5, 11:01 UTC
- Last active
- Dec 22, 13:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.