Esteemed-Tumbler
0x80f6a817fa7a897a8f3b8f08614eced6cbf6dd1f
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$115.36
Total PnL
$-523.23
Realised
$2.63
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
100 shares @ 40.0¢·now 68.0¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$67.99
$28.00
- YES
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?
30 shares @ 46.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.70
$-2.10
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
100 shares @ 11.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$10.50
$-0.50
- NO
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
10 shares @ 91.3¢·now 96.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$9.68
$0.54
- YES
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?
40 shares @ 23.0¢·now 23.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.20
$0.00
- NO
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
20 shares @ 71.7¢·now 14.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.93
$-11.41
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
29 shares @ 16.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.90
$-1.74
- YES
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
30 shares @ 17.0¢·now 1.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.46
$-4.63
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?
589 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-17.67
- YES
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on July 31?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?$3.29Jul 24, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?$0.98Jul 24, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?$5.12Jul 24, 01:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran invades Kuwait by August 31?$9.13Jul 23, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$11.00Jul 23, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the July Meeting?$0.16Jul 23, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$3.30Jul 23, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31?$4.42Jul 23, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?$0.21Jul 18, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$1.70Jul 17, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$2.36Jul 17, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$0.19Jul 17, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$0.85Jul 17, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?$8.99Jul 16, 21:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?$4.17Jul 16, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 24, 2026?$1.20Jul 16, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?$6.60Jul 16, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 18?$1.13Jul 16, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$3.70Jul 16, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?$4.64Jul 16, 19:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $7.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 7, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 19:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.