Limping-Shape
0x81035115a389a085e36255e5cb9b9ab8ee3723a1
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-10.1K
Realised
$-235.85
Win rate
41%
49 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 9?
8689 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-19.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 14?
7121 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-106.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 14?
6642 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-14.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on May 11?
6591 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-10.78
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C or higher on April 19?
6269 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-31.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 19?
6001 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-40.97
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 22°C on May 9?
5648 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-18.78
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 9?
5607 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-10.71
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 13?
5247 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-97.51
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C or higher on May 1?
5068 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-30.78
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.08Jul 4, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Washington D.C. on July 4?$137.78Jul 3, 10:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill it rain in Washington D.C. on July 4?$65.57Jul 3, 10:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17?$46.67Jul 3, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Washington D.C. on July 4?$0.00Jul 3, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Washington D.C. on July 4?$0.26Jul 3, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Washington D.C. on July 4?$0.16Jul 3, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Washington D.C. on July 4?$0.53Jul 3, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Washington D.C. on July 4?$0.53Jul 3, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Washington D.C. on July 4?$26.32Jul 3, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Washington D.C. on July 4?$0.26Jul 3, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Washington D.C. on July 4?$0.21Jul 3, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Washington D.C. on July 4?$1.05Jul 3, 09:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Washington D.C. on July 4?$1.04Jul 3, 09:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?$0.00May 18, 01:13 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.00May 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?$0.03May 17, 21:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?$0.02May 17, 20:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 17?$10.08May 17, 19:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 17?$3.84May 17, 19:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
41% win rate over 49 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
49 closed markets, 41% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $12.38
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 17, 09:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 49 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.