Informal-Nail
0x81164af635b37285fa81e22e9f8ce3297aa22954
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
100
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-131.37
Realised
$4.27
Win rate
100%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 100- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 16?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 8PM ET
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET
168 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
42 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 4PM ET
27 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-14.85
- UP
Solana Up or Down - January 30, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
25 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$3.14Jul 17, 16:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$1.37Jul 17, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$1.02Jul 17, 16:46 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$1.05Jul 17, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET$1.03Jul 17, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$1.02Jul 17, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET$1.03Jul 17, 16:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET$1.03Jul 3, 20:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.50Jul 3, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$1.03Jul 3, 20:21 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$0.00Jul 3, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET$1.02Jul 3, 20:17 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$1.41Jul 3, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$1.04Jul 3, 20:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.19Jul 3, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$1.07Jul 3, 20:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$1.12Jul 3, 20:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$1.35Jul 3, 20:05 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$2.22Jul 3, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$1.33Jul 3, 20:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $1.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 18:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 16:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.