Afraid-Foray
0x8124ebb70b2941dfa691b4775ed6ec0dc915938f
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$21.96
Total PnL
$-426.26
Realised
$-0.75
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
70 shares @ 12.1¢·now 28.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$19.57
$11.10
- YES
Will Taylor Swift perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?
20 shares @ 12.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Feb 14, 2027$2.40
$0.00
- NO
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
540 shares @ 15.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-84.00
- NO
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?
214 shares @ 31.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-66.59
- NO
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 44.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-89.00
- NO
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
175 shares @ 63.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-111.30
- NO
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
150 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-48.00
- YES
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?
35 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-5.60
- NO
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?
34 shares @ 39.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-13.67
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
19 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.44
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 70/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $8.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 16:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.