Self-Assured-Tailbud
0x813fa110c4e2dfc6737ce185757764c8643e26ec
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
121
Open notional
$834.24
Total PnL
$-84.41
Realised
$-1.31
Win rate
50%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 121- NO
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on July 7?
20 shares @ 81.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$19.20
$3.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on July 7?
20 shares @ 86.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$18.90
$1.70
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 7?
20 shares @ 85.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$18.90
$1.90
- NO
Will T-Mobile (TMUS) Q2 total service revenues be above $19.3B?
20 shares @ 81.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$17.10
$0.90
- NO
Will Keyd Stars Win CBLOL 2026 Split 2
20 shares @ 85.9¢·now 84.8¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$16.96
$-0.22
- NO
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $300 Week of July 6 2026?
20 shares @ 55.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$16.50
$5.50
- YES
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,020 Week of July 6 2026?
20 shares @ 72.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$15.30
$0.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 7?
20 shares @ 69.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$15.30
$1.50
- YES
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $960 Week of July 6 2026?
20 shares @ 83.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$15.20
$-1.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on July 7?
20 shares @ 74.0¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$15.10
$0.30
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Graham Platner drop out by July 6?$3.80Jul 6, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 8?$1.23Jul 6, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 3M (MMM) beat quarterly earnings?$7.80Jul 6, 22:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 8?$1.00Jul 6, 22:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 8?$1.71Jul 6, 22:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on July 8?$4.02Jul 6, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud by July 31?$9.60Jul 6, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump praise Elon Musk by July 31?$17.80Jul 6, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 8?$7.20Jul 6, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 8?$15.80Jul 6, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin McKenna win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?$7.20Jul 6, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Elon Musk by July 31?$16.80Jul 6, 20:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump praise Elon Musk by July 31?$3.00Jul 6, 20:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on July 8?$1.30Jul 6, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on July 8?$0.66Jul 6, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on July 8?$1.10Jul 6, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on July 8?$0.24Jul 6, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on July 8?$1.10Jul 6, 20:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump praise Elon Musk by July 31?$5.40Jul 6, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dplus Esports Win Challengers 2026: Korea WDG Split 2$3.72Jul 6, 19:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $6.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 11:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 22:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.