Self-Assured-Tailbud
0x813fa110c4e2dfc6737ce185757764c8643e26ec
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$-214.96
Realised
$-11.90
Win rate
42%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 20?
20 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$19.99
$6.19
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on August 20?
20 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$19.99
$6.59
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 20?
20 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$19.99
$7.39
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on August 21?
20 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$19.99
$9.19
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 21?
20 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$19.99
$5.19
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 20?
20 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$19.99
$3.79
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 20?
20 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$19.99
$8.19
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on August 21?
20 shares @ 45.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$19.99
$10.99
- YES
Will James Fishback win 10–15% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
20 shares @ 36.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$19.97
$12.77
- NO
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
20 shares @ 83.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$19.89
$3.29
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 22?$14.40Aug 21, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on August 22?$14.00Aug 21, 01:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 22?$5.00Aug 21, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on August 22?$0.89Aug 21, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Insidious: Out of the Further" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?$9.20Aug 21, 01:54 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 22?$2.16Aug 21, 01:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 22?$9.00Aug 21, 01:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on August 22?$16.00Aug 21, 01:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 22?$0.69Aug 21, 01:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 22?$0.94Aug 21, 01:34 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 22?$12.77Aug 21, 01:28 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 22?$15.63Aug 21, 01:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 22?$5.80Aug 21, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 22?$11.83Aug 21, 01:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 5-9 posts from August 21 to August 28, 2026?$15.80Aug 21, 01:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 22?$6.40Aug 21, 01:11 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on August 22?$2.03Aug 21, 01:08 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 22?$2.83Aug 21, 01:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 22?$0.82Aug 21, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on August 22?$1.50Aug 21, 00:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $6.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 20, 22:46 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 21, 02:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.