Knobby-Observation
0x8140f2767dcf450042a2337f65922c3573bf626f
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-732.34
Realised
$-16.31
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Elon tweet 410–424 times August 8–August 15?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15?
1667 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will GPT-5 be released by August 10?
1606 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 10, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?
1535 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
910 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-87.00
- YES
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?
817 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?
793 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 16, 2025$0.00
$-20.61
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?
758 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15?
750 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Elon tweet 425–439 times August 8–August 15?
699 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 1?$20.33Mar 1, 13:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$22.00Feb 28, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$15.00Feb 28, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?$50.00Feb 28, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?$14.12Jan 30, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?$15.00Jan 30, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$10.00Jan 30, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?$20.00Jan 30, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?$21.00Jan 30, 23:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 5, 2026?$25.00Jan 30, 23:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?$47.05Dec 24, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by November 30?$6.25Nov 26, 02:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2025?$20.61Sep 15, 23:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?$20.01Sep 15, 23:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?$115.00Aug 20, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?$113.00Aug 20, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?$40.00Aug 20, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?$40.00Aug 20, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15?$10.00Aug 14, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?$50.00Aug 14, 00:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $189.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 5, 01:34 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 1, 13:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".