Tepid-Notion
0x81482c537eaffd5d3b882688a806a5c2bda2613b
Wallet digest
Activity score
65/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
12
Open notional
$29.54
Total PnL
$-83.30
Realised
$61.83
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
969 shares @ 10.0¢·now 3.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$29.54
$-67.32
- NO
GPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?
443 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-26.58
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
83 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?
71 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-08?
50 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?
27 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-16.23
- YES
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer
13 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
10 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYGemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?$85.80May 18, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?$14.55May 18, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?$10.12May 6, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?$6.30May 6, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYExact Score: FC Bayern München 4 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC?$1.03May 6, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYMichael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer$5.09May 6, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?$11.32Mar 3, 07:32 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iraq by March 7?$11.32Mar 3, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iraq by March 7?$11.25Mar 1, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?$10.00Mar 1, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?$10.00Mar 1, 13:17 UTC
- REDEEMGPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?$31.25Mar 1, 13:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?$5.26Feb 28, 14:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?$5.26Feb 28, 12:46 UTC
- TRADESELLGPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?$149.53Feb 20, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.3 released by March 31, 2026?$7.00Feb 17, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?$1.00Feb 17, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jared Kushner attend the 2026 State of the Union address?$1.00Feb 17, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "HAMAS" during Board of Peace events on February 19?$1.00Feb 17, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYGPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?$5.00Feb 17, 12:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $12.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 13, 22:54 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 11:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.