Innocent-Hit
0x814a369c659b8202469b5892c238e69d164cab7a
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$232.44
Total PnL
$-287.77
Realised
$5.24
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- NO
Will SaD Esports Win North America ACE Stage 3
100 shares @ 92.5¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$92.50
$0.00
- NO
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections?
80 shares @ 61.5¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$38.80
$-10.40
- NO
Will Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?
120 shares @ 36.7¢·now 22.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$26.99
$-17.09
- NO
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
50 shares @ 82.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$18.25
$-22.75
- YES
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
40 shares @ 52.5¢·now 39.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.80
$-5.20
- YES
Will Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?
30 shares @ 49.0¢·now 49.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$14.70
$0.00
- NO
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup?
20 shares @ 60.0¢·now 63.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$12.60
$0.60
- NO
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?
20 shares @ 21.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$3.60
$-0.60
- YES
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
4 shares @ 52.2¢·now 89.8¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$3.54
$1.48
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June?
300 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$2.85
$-33.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill SaD Esports Win North America ACE Stage 3$46.00Jun 26, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYMLP New York: New Jersey 5s vs Las Vegas Night Owls$0.70Jun 26, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SaD Esports Win North America ACE Stage 3$46.50Jun 26, 08:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$64.00Jun 26, 08:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match?$60.00Jun 26, 03:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "Temperature" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match?$12.60Jun 26, 01:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "Temperature" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match?$9.00Jun 26, 01:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the announcers say "Temperature" during the Japan vs Sweden FIFA World Cup Match?$2.40Jun 26, 01:09 UTC
- REWARD$2.27Jun 26, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?$33.00Jun 25, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$33.00Jun 25, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$34.00Jun 25, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?$18.00Jun 25, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dwayne Romero be the Democratic nominee for CO-03?$14.70Jun 25, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?$8.53Jun 25, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?$0.59Jun 25, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?$2.94Jun 25, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?$1.23Jun 25, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?$0.22Jun 25, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Melat Kiros be the Democratic nominee for CO-01?$0.88Jun 25, 14:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $16.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 14:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 10:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.