Outgoing-Divalent
0x814f0d6b17d028b6d7f15f33d7d204c21fcddf12
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$5.01
Total PnL
$-8.54
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
3 shares @ 9.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$3.00
$2.73
- NO
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Tether acquire Circle before September?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$1.00
$0.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on June 30?
11 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 85-86°F on June 30?
11 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 82°F or below on June 30?
11 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 89-90°F on June 30?
11 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 83-84°F on June 30?
11 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.83
- YES
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on August 31?
3 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.27
- YES
Will Meta have the top AI model on August 31?
3 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.27
Recent activity
- TRADEBUY Will Tether acquire Circle before September?$1.00Aug 28, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?$1.00Aug 28, 22:21 UTC
- CONVERSIONWhich company has best AI model end of August?$0.00Aug 28, 22:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be greater than $190 on July 21?$1.01Aug 28, 22:11 UTC
- CONVERSIONSolana price on July 21?$0.00Jul 20, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be less than $160 on July 21?$1.00Jul 19, 23:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 91-92°F on June 30?$11.01Jul 19, 23:59 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in NYC on June 30?$0.00Jun 30, 22:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or higher on June 30?$11.00Jun 30, 22:35 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?$11.06Jun 30, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?$11.00May 31, 22:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'Minecraft' gross between 100m and 110m on opening weekend?$0.00May 31, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'Minecraft' gross between 90m and 100m on opening weekend?$0.00May 31, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'Minecraft' gross less than 90m on opening weekend?$0.00May 31, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? $1.19May 31, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'Minecraft' gross more than 120m on opening weekend?$10.16May 31, 22:18 UTC
- CONVERSION'Minecraft' Opening Weekend Box Office (Higher Brackets)$0.00Apr 5, 13:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 'Minecraft' gross between 110m and 120m on opening weekend?$10.12Apr 5, 12:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump say "Reserve" during Crypto Summit on Friday?$5.00Mar 8, 07:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump say "Reserve" during Crypto Summit on Friday?$5.00Mar 7, 21:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
15 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 15
- Avg trade size
- $5.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 14, 03:20 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 28, 22:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.