Squiggly-Diaphragm
0x8172489fc86d9b01ff670be454db3e9701890889
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-460.50
Realised
$-5.49
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,180,000 and $1,187,000 on May 31?
311 shares @ 13.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-43.24
- NO
Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,173,000 and $1,180,000 on May 31?
216 shares @ 27.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-59.23
- YES
Will the median home value in Chicago be less than $336,000 on April 30?
209 shares @ 56.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-118.91
- YES
Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,172,000 and $1,181,000 on June 30?
162 shares @ 40.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-65.17
- YES
Will the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,180,000 and $1,190,000 on April 30?
117 shares @ 33.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-38.99
- NO
Will the median home value in Chicago be between $339,000 and $342,000 on June 30?
105 shares @ 67.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-71.05
- YES
Will the median home value in the US be between $435,000 and $437,000 on June 30?
62 shares @ 32.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-20.28
- YES
Will the median home value in New York City be between $568,000 and $575,000 on April 30?
41 shares @ 15.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.30
- YES
Will the median home value in Chicago be less than $339,000 on June 30?
40 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-21.20
- YES
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 on April 30?
36 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-7.17
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the median home value in New York City be greater than $620,000 on June 30?$30.00Jun 30, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in the DC Metro area be less than $554,000 on June 30?$113.86Jun 30, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 on June 30?$75.00Jun 30, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be between $1,181,000 and $1,190,000 on June 30?$159.97Jun 30, 16:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in the DC Metro area be between $558,000 and $562,000 on June 30?$27.07Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in the DC Metro area be between $554,000 and $558,000 on June 30?$25.82Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in the US be greater than $439,000 on June 30?$72.70Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 on June 30?$212.05Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in the US be between $437,000 and $439,000 on June 30?$35.00Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30?$175.88Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be greater than $495,000 on June 30?$207.43Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 on June 30?$199.74Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in Chicago be between $345,000 and $348,000 on June 30?$106.99Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in Chicago be greater than $354,000 on June 30?$35.31Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in Chicago be between $342,000 and $345,000 on June 30?$191.00Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in Chicago be between $348,000 and $351,000 on June 30?$137.97Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in Chicago be between $351,000 and $354,000 on June 30?$50.00Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in New York City be between $599,000 and $606,000 on June 30?$55.60Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in New York City be between $606,000 and $613,000 on June 30?$78.75Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the median home value in the Los Angeles Metro area be less than $1,172,000 on June 30?$91.80Jun 30, 15:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $6.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 14:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 30, 16:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.