Instructive-Pleat
0x817951d1077bda1c8506a495e675afe18173777d
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$100.00
Total PnL
$-461.79
Realised
$1.62
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
100 shares @ 19.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$100.00
$81.00
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
504 shares @ 46.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2024$0.00
$-232.30
- NO
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House
200 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-80.00
- YES
Will a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?
159 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-70.00
- YES
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before October?
120 shares @ 6.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2024$0.00
$-8.02
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
100 shares @ 47.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-47.20
- NO
Will a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency?
100 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-37.00
- YES
Taylor Swift pregnant in 2024?
87 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election?
80 shares @ 39.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-31.40
- YES
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency?
50 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$0.00
$-18.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$19.00Mar 25, 16:24 UTC
- REDEEMTrump affair with Laura Loomer?$5.15Feb 26, 01:51 UTC
- REDEEMIran military response before October?$11.11Feb 26, 01:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be another debate?$23.81Feb 26, 01:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Travis Kelce endorse Kamala Harris?$25.00Feb 26, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Republican win the popular vote and the Presidency? $37.00Nov 6, 02:42 UTC
- TRADEBUY2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House$58.36Nov 6, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUY2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House$21.63Nov 6, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? $0.11Nov 1, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? $0.94Nov 1, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? $1.45Nov 1, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? $3.09Nov 1, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? $3.01Nov 1, 06:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? $1.91Nov 1, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? $3.13Nov 1, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? $3.05Nov 1, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Democrat win the popular vote and the Presidency? $1.80Nov 1, 06:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Democrat win Arizona Presidential Election?$6.40Oct 16, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$82.60Oct 16, 20:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Democrat win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?$50.00Oct 16, 15:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $18.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 11, 11:02 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 25, 16:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".