Wallet digest

active

Activity score

62/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.4K

Realised

$283.87

Win rate

81%

31 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
450 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-27.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
375 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
250 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
200 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-44.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET
177 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
160 shares @ 13.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-21.40
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
150 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
150 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-3.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
143 shares @ 16.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026
$0.00
$-23.20
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET
130 shares @ 20.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-27.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$1.55Jul 3, 09:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$0.45Jul 3, 09:47 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$0.93Jul 3, 09:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$2.13Jul 3, 09:47 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$6.78Jul 3, 09:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$36.29Jul 3, 09:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET$21.12Jul 3, 09:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$16.50Jul 3, 09:33 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$50.00Jul 3, 09:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET$23.20Jul 3, 09:30 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$15.93Jul 3, 09:29 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$28.38Jul 3, 09:26 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$50.25Jul 3, 09:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.55Jul 3, 09:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.86Jul 3, 09:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$14.57Jul 3, 09:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.55Jul 3, 09:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$9.92Jul 3, 09:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET$1.55Jul 3, 09:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET$37.61Jul 3, 09:20 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

79/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

81% win rate over 31 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

31 closed markets, 81% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity71 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry44 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk30 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 48
Avg trade size: $15.50
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 3, 08:20 UTC
Last active: Jul 3, 09:48 UTC
Win rate sample: 31 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 22:01:32 UTC·src:Polymarket Data