Jolly-Frown
0x8187bf264ceaf76ba41f67b5f38ba92ce5ee0578
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
1012 shares @ 73.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$926.25
$187.28
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
243 shares @ 98.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$243.13
$4.13
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
242 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$241.90
$2.90
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
209 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$208.74
$16.70
- NO
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
175 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$175.46
$31.58
- NO
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
138 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$137.56
$19.26
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
23 shares @ 64.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$22.50
$8.08
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
19 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$18.92
$2.27
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?
1103 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-739.01
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
759 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-478.04
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$248.20Apr 17, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by May 31?$739.01Apr 5, 01:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$738.98Apr 5, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$239.02Mar 29, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$239.02Mar 29, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?$9.38Mar 26, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?$6.14Mar 26, 05:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?$1.05Mar 26, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?$6.37Mar 26, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?$75.03Mar 26, 04:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?$11.72Mar 26, 03:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?$8.60Mar 26, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$12.78Mar 26, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$29.61Mar 26, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$196.62Mar 26, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$240.63Mar 23, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$10.10Mar 22, 21:00 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by March 31?$239.00Mar 22, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$143.88Mar 22, 07:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$192.04Mar 22, 07:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $159.68
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 22, 06:40 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 17, 10:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.