0x818e77efc241e4d5e93381a37d546f4cb226178f
0x818e77efc241e4d5e93381a37d546f4cb226178f
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
35
Open notional
$26.70
Total PnL
$-104.97
Realised
$15.70
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 35- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 2?
15 shares @ 34.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$14.70
$9.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on February 28?
12 shares @ 25.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$12.00
$9.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 28?
111 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 28?
111 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 1?
79 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or below on March 1?
37 shares @ 8.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or below on February 28?
34 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET
20 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-9.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 3?
15 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.85
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET
14 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-5.32
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on March 2?$0.00Mar 8, 19:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on February 28?$0.00Mar 8, 19:34 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$30.98Mar 8, 19:33 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$6.66Mar 8, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$5.39Mar 8, 15:09 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$5.66Mar 8, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET$4.94Mar 8, 04:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$5.99Mar 6, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$5.40Mar 6, 14:34 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$9.01Mar 6, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 6, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET$5.31Mar 6, 14:14 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$0.00Mar 5, 20:10 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$0.00Mar 5, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$5.40Mar 5, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET$5.40Mar 5, 20:09 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$5.99Mar 5, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - March 5, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET$5.34Mar 5, 17:44 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$9.49Mar 4, 23:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$0.00Mar 4, 22:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$5.39Mar 4, 22:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $5.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 2, 23:50 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 8, 19:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.