Fearful-Independence
0x8190816855b676a5efd8c5b344135a72337bb247
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
137
Open notional
$125.2K
Total PnL
$-16.2K
Realised
$-5.0K
Win rate
49%
73 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 137- NO
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
31093 shares @ 85.4¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.7K
$1.1K
- YES
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
17128 shares @ 89.2¢·now 94.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.2K
$887.17
- NO
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
13260 shares @ 96.9¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$13.0K
$188.37
- NO
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
10000 shares @ 90.0¢·now 95.9¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$9.6K
$584.33
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
8216 shares @ 87.2¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.5K
$353.98
- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
5500 shares @ 83.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.1K
$519.85
- NO
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
4479 shares @ 83.7¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.1K
$394.04
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
4000 shares @ 89.3¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.8K
$268.14
- NO
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
3523 shares @ 91.4¢·now 96.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.4K
$187.60
- NO
Kurds declare independence from Iran?
2935 shares @ 92.2¢·now 97.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.9K
$167.47
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$20.17Jun 13, 21:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$41.00Jun 13, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$41.00Jun 13, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?$25.80Jun 13, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$106.33Jun 13, 09:41 UTC
- TRADESELLErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?$15.68Jun 13, 08:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?$0.53Jun 13, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine election called by June 30, 2026?$32.65Jun 13, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine election called by June 30, 2026?$106.39Jun 13, 08:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUkraine election called by June 30, 2026?$136.76Jun 13, 08:15 UTC
- TRADESELLErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?$465.00Jun 13, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYEx-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?$135.77Jun 13, 02:58 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.04Jun 13, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$1.32Jun 13, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iván Cepeda win less than 30% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?$0.32Jun 12, 23:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?$36.30Jun 12, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?$87.00Jun 12, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?$102.53Jun 12, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?$48.50Jun 12, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?$2.84Jun 12, 18:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $90.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 11:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 21:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 73 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.