Failing-Manhunt
0x8199d2d2813a60bc15580cc97f2e0e54c73abb6d
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$6.2K
Total PnL
$359.80
Realised
$215.22
Win rate
100%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- NO
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
4220 shares @ 86.7¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.8K
$96.41
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
1242 shares @ 92.1¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.2K
$42.66
- NO
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026?
463 shares @ 97.1¢·now 99.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$459.01
$9.74
- YES
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?
413 shares @ 98.1¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$412.79
$7.19
- NO
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026?
150 shares @ 97.2¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$148.42
$2.58
- NO
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
110 shares @ 92.5¢·now 95.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$105.48
$3.42
- NO
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?
40 shares @ 88.3¢·now 94.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.55
$2.58
- YES
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 16.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.00
$-4.00
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
22 shares @ 88.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.60
$0.54
- YES
Will 2 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?
45 shares @ 6.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.72
$9.99
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$158.79Jun 14, 11:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$30.23Jun 14, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$20.69Jun 14, 11:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$106.28Jun 14, 11:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$96.90Jun 14, 11:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$94.89Jun 14, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?$67.46Jun 14, 08:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.00Jun 14, 06:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$17.26Jun 14, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$40.17Jun 14, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$35.97Jun 14, 05:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$94.00Jun 14, 04:57 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 14, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$934.00Jun 13, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$933.00Jun 13, 15:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$95.00Jun 13, 14:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$932.00Jun 13, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$933.00Jun 13, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$37.13Jun 13, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$51.42Jun 13, 10:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $130.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 01:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 11:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.