0x819d1fa13af8de3eceba052d55d20dc64af90341
0x819d1fa13af8de3eceba052d55d20dc64af90341
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-123.91
Realised
$-5.86
Win rate
12%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 29?
240 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
180 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.80
- NO
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final?
145 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 29?
141 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.13
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
125 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET
71 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - July 2, 9AM ET
67 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-18.13
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET
44 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- OVER
Australia vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5
38 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-11.50
- OVER
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5
33 shares @ 67.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-22.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET$1.93Jul 17, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10AM ET$1.95Jul 17, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 10AM ET$1.96Jul 17, 14:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 17?$1.38Jul 17, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 17?$0.46Jul 17, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 17?$9.06Jul 17, 07:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $2,000 July 13-19?$3.59Jul 17, 07:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of July 13 2026?$2.57Jul 17, 07:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of July 13 2026?$2.96Jul 17, 07:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 Week of July 13 2026?$7.26Jul 17, 04:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of July 13 2026?$6.90Jul 16, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,150 Week of July 13 2026?$39.81Jul 16, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$9.47Jul 16, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,000 July 13-19?$21.25Jul 16, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin above 64,800 on July 16, 11AM ET?$3.17Jul 16, 14:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?$25.16Jul 16, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?$21.01Jul 16, 13:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?$20.37Jul 16, 13:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?$24.16Jul 16, 13:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?$17.93Jul 16, 13:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
12% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $13.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 12:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 15:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.