Wallet digest

Activity score

15/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.0K

Realised

$-9.91

Win rate

93 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UNDER
Penguins vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UNDER
Penguins vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
SÃO PAULO FC
Spread: São Paulo FC (-2.5)
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 26, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
64 shares @ 25.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-16.30
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
61 shares @ 46.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-28.45
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
54 shares @ 47.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-25.97
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
51 shares @ 43.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026
$0.00
$-22.34
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
51 shares @ 48.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026
$0.00
$-24.53
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET
51 shares @ 46.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026
$0.00
$-23.52
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
51 shares @ 47.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026
$0.00
$-24.09

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$3.52Jul 9, 21:13 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - May 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMGeneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - May 30, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - May 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - May 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - June 8, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET$0.00Jul 9, 15:22 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

70/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 93 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record

pass

93 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity0 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry98 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk20 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 0
Avg trade size: $0.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 9, 15:22 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:13 UTC
Win rate sample: 93 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 20:23:55 UTC·src:Polymarket Data