0x81abddec7699b5f70196ade17c4c429dbac95f31
0x81abddec7699b5f70196ade17c4c429dbac95f31
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$40.00
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$-736.99
Win rate
1%
87 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on May 17?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$20.00
$10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on May 17?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$20.00
$10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
1042 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-20.44
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET
464 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.64
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 29?
337 shares @ 16.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-56.04
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
232 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.65
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
232 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.65
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
195 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 22, 2026$0.00
$-20.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 28?
167 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 10°C or higher on March 29?
162 shares @ 18.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-30.35
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on May 17?$0.16May 21, 08:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on May 21?$1.45May 21, 08:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 10?$0.50May 21, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 10?$0.55May 21, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on May 14?$0.99May 21, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on May 17?$9.91May 21, 08:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on May 21?$1.45May 21, 08:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22?$6.81May 21, 08:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 17?$20.00May 21, 08:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 21?$1.22May 21, 08:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 21?$2.99May 21, 08:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on May 21?$3.78May 21, 08:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seattle be 74°F or higher on May 21?$5.88May 21, 08:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on May 21?$0.44May 21, 08:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on May 21?$1.74May 21, 08:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 21?$8.06May 21, 08:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22?$4.70May 21, 08:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 21?$1.31May 21, 08:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 21?$3.10May 21, 08:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on May 21?$5.00May 21, 08:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 87 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
87 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $6.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 21, 06:42 UTC
- Last active
- May 21, 08:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 87 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.