Miserable-Lie
0x81cec65d2e4d35933dc402f58aba82940a2878f3
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
69
Open notional
$0.66
Total PnL
$-94.98
Realised
$7.84
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 69- YES
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?
5 shares @ 19.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.66
$-0.34
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 9?
1750 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 5?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 4?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 11?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15?
433 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 4?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 10?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 9?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March?
146 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Germany win on 2026-06-20?$1.54Jun 21, 22:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?$2.70Jun 20, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-20?$1.01Jun 20, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Haiti win on 2026-06-19?$1.03Jun 20, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May?$10.66May 6, 00:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?$1.05May 6, 00:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$0.00May 6, 00:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $80 in March?$0.00Apr 1, 07:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?$2.63Apr 1, 07:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $80 in March?$0.00Apr 1, 06:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $80 in March?$1.79Apr 1, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,000 March 9-15?$3.00Mar 12, 14:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 11?$1.69Mar 11, 21:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$1.00Mar 11, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$1.00Mar 11, 16:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?$1.00Mar 11, 16:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March?$6.00Mar 11, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March?$1.00Mar 11, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $95,000 in March?$1.00Mar 11, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15?$6.00Mar 11, 16:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
12/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 10, 08:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 21, 22:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.