Damaged-Divalent-Stable
0x81e96a9a3fac6a82be8318f84b4cf32f2c3a8e07
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$652.32
Total PnL
$-498.85
Realised
$-24.30
Win rate
32%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Is Earth flat?
101 shares @ 50.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$99.89
$49.39
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 21?
93 shares @ 92.4¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$84.29
$-1.74
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?
99 shares @ 63.1¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$60.47
$-2.11
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 21?
35 shares @ 93.7¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$35.33
$2.11
- YES
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?
29 shares @ 97.3¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$28.18
$0.04
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 21?
25 shares @ 16.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$24.99
$20.99
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 21?
25 shares @ 28.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$24.62
$17.67
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 21?
15 shares @ 60.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$14.99
$5.89
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 22?
15 shares @ 48.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$11.78
$4.58
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on July 21?
21 shares @ 34.8¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jul 21, 2026$11.55
$4.18
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 21?$4.65Jul 21, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$3.25Jul 21, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$3.25Jul 21, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 21?$4.65Jul 21, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 21?$4.65Jul 21, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$3.25Jul 21, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 21?$4.65Jul 21, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$3.25Jul 21, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$3.20Jul 21, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 21?$4.65Jul 21, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 21?$4.65Jul 21, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$3.20Jul 21, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 21?$4.65Jul 21, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$3.20Jul 21, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$3.20Jul 21, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 21?$4.65Jul 21, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$3.20Jul 21, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 21?$2.63Jul 21, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$1.83Jul 21, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on July 21?$3.20Jul 21, 20:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
32% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 19:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 20:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.