Bare-Piano
0x820e36a499f2b3071317109133d374fcf818285a
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-261.29
Realised
$23.94
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $84,000 on January 20?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 4?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 10?
993 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 13?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 17?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Solana be less than $100 on January 21?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by January 31?
450 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
342 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the US strike Venezuela next?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?
262 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$1.04Jul 1, 10:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$0.60Jul 1, 10:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$0.69Jul 1, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?$1.04Jun 28, 12:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 22-28?$0.05Jun 28, 12:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$0.12Jun 28, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?$0.03Jun 28, 12:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?$0.19Jun 28, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28?$1.07Jun 27, 09:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26?$1.26Jun 26, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$1.04Jun 26, 12:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26?$1.48Jun 26, 12:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 27?$1.06Jun 26, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?$1.04Jun 26, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?$1.04Jun 26, 10:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June?$1.04Jun 26, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$2.09Jun 26, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?$1.04Jun 26, 09:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?$1.05Jun 26, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?$2.09Jun 26, 02:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 14, 08:40 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 10:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.