Weary-Drawbridge
0x821794c1c1a343d49e0beb7a1f23029fa531e224
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
24
Open notional
$99.69
Total PnL
$13.17
Realised
$0.32
Win rate
25%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
16 shares @ 74.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$15.61
$4.01
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
16 shares @ 20.8¢·now 89.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.45
$11.08
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
14 shares @ 75.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$13.89
$3.47
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?
11 shares @ 79.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$10.62
$2.18
- YES
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?
10 shares @ 20.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$9.95
$7.96
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
9 shares @ 56.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.92
$3.02
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
6 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$5.76
$0.86
- YES
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
4 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$4.42
$0.93
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
4 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$3.95
$0.55
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
4 shares @ 52.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$3.77
$1.79
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00May 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00May 5, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?$1.84Apr 16, 17:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?$2.89Mar 24, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$1.92Mar 24, 20:29 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$5.38Mar 24, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$0.92Mar 24, 05:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$0.49Mar 24, 05:46 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$2.69Mar 24, 05:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$1.13Mar 24, 01:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?$1.72Mar 24, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$2.44Mar 24, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$2.44Mar 24, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$3.49Mar 23, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by April 30?$3.49Mar 23, 13:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill UAE strike Iran by March 31?$2.68Mar 23, 11:39 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$1.36Mar 23, 11:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$10.60Mar 23, 11:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $2.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 18, 10:12 UTC
- Last active
- May 8, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.