Willing-Seizure
0x824a6a17b29377d063fa7ebfa92c7261999f01b4
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$76.29
Total PnL
$-584.07
Realised
$1.38
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.45 and $0.50 on September 30, 2026?
20 shares @ 47.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$8.50
$-0.90
- YES
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
42 shares @ 24.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$6.93
$-3.15
- YES
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on August 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 30.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$6.30
$0.30
- NO
Will "Ransom Canyon: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
36 shares @ 24.5¢·now 16.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$5.94
$-2.88
- YES
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be at least $486,000 on September 30?
78 shares @ 13.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$5.46
$-4.68
- NO
Will Kevin Steele be the FL-14 Republican nominee?
20 shares @ 28.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$5.40
$-0.20
- YES
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $454,000 and $462,000 on September 30?
20 shares @ 29.0¢·now 26.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$5.30
$-0.50
- NO
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?
20 shares @ 29.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$4.10
$-1.70
- YES
Will the US Trade Deficit be between $60 billion and $70 billion in June 2026?
24 shares @ 21.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$3.72
$-1.32
- YES
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by August 31, 2026?
30 shares @ 17.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.60
$-1.50
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Esan Olajide win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?$0.39Aug 1, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Esan Olajide win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?$0.85Aug 1, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in August 2026?$5.40Aug 1, 00:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the median home value in Austin Metro be between $446,000 and $454,000 on September 30?$3.87Aug 1, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Esan Olajide win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?$0.38Aug 1, 00:52 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.58Aug 1, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Joao Cancelo stay at Al-Hilal?$0.81Aug 1, 00:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Joao Cancelo stay at Al-Hilal?$0.81Aug 1, 00:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ademola Adeleke win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?$7.00Aug 1, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ademola Adeleke win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?$6.80Aug 1, 00:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 1?$3.80Aug 1, 00:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on August 1?$3.30Aug 1, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$22.74Aug 1, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYLindsay Hubbard and Matt James confirm relationship in 2026?$2.20Jul 31, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in August 2026?$5.04Jul 31, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by August 31, 2026?$5.10Jul 31, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$4.56Jul 31, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$5.04Jul 31, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 31 to August 7, 2026?$0.48Jul 31, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on August 1?$1.12Jul 31, 16:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $3.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 12:27 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 05:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.