Lighthearted-Tavern
0x82873f5500c35864a70cd7c4d02578dae625dd79
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
24
Open notional
$172.70
Total PnL
$-152.55
Realised
$-0.51
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
80 shares @ 55.0¢·now 59.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.60
$3.60
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
43 shares @ 67.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.71
$6.71
- YES
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
51 shares @ 59.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$29.75
$-0.25
- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
49 shares @ 51.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.32
$-3.68
- YES
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?
39 shares @ 51.8¢·now 51.5¢·exp May 16, 2026$19.86
$-0.14
- YES
Will Israel come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?
115 shares @ 13.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$18.46
$3.46
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?
200 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
85 shares @ 17.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?
51 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-33.15
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?
51 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-11.72
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?$30.37May 15, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$25.00May 15, 00:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?$20.48May 15, 00:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel come in 3rd place at Eurovision 2026?$15.65May 15, 00:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$44.00Apr 27, 05:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$36.00Apr 27, 05:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$37.00Apr 27, 05:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$21.05Apr 25, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 21?$13.00Apr 21, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$20.00Apr 18, 01:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$12.62Apr 16, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET$10.00Apr 16, 05:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 14?$24.36Apr 14, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 14?$15.00Apr 14, 04:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$60.14Apr 14, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$43.00Apr 11, 20:19 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?$22.78Apr 10, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?$12.00Apr 8, 18:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?$32.63Apr 8, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08?$67.00Apr 8, 18:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $20.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 29, 21:34 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 00:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".