Muffled-Screenwriting
0x82a7f376d8ad5b6e80b891729b380ac0a1286011
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
74
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-309.15
Realised
$30.58
Win rate
86%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 74- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET
1506 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
1244 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
1045 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-19.99
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET
520 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9?
515 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
187 shares @ 17.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-32.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
167 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
145 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 9?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.