0x82ae434f983771a5bc94092a6850da80368e2890
0x82ae434f983771a5bc94092a6850da80368e2890
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$826.52
Total PnL
$-76.5K
Realised
$-38.1K
Win rate
0%
194 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026?
663 shares @ 96.5¢·now 96.2¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$637.47
$-2.32
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
200 shares @ 66.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$101.20
$-31.06
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
264 shares @ 20.2¢·now 19.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$52.39
$-0.92
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
192 shares @ 20.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$35.46
$-2.88
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
1278 shares @ 27.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-355.26
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
1181 shares @ 28.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-331.61
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET
1179 shares @ 36.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-433.84
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
1133 shares @ 30.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-347.89
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET
1070 shares @ 27.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-290.79
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
1001 shares @ 26.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-268.69
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYOver $4M committed to the RipCars public sale?$1.05Jul 21, 17:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?$43.00Jul 21, 16:56 UTC
- TRADESELLITF Horb: Maria Martinez Vaquero vs Lola Giza$0.67Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 21?$6.16Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?$3.25Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 21?$1.20Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$4.99Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Nepal vs Namibia$4.99Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLITF Ollersbach: Michael Gloeckler vs Thilo Behrmann$0.46Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLITF Horb: Maria Martinez Vaquero vs Lola Giza$8.02Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLITF Horb: Maria Martinez Vaquero vs Lola Giza$1.44Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 21?$2.11Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 21?$9.93Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 21?$13.60Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 21?$0.96Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$4.07Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill XRP reach $1.20 in July?$1.62Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill XRP reach $1.20 in July?$5.43Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 in July?$6.31Jul 21, 16:28 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Entropy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stage$12.00Jul 21, 16:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 194 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
194 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $28.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 14:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 17:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 194 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.