Wallet digest

active

Activity score

25/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.4K

Realised

$-83.30

Win rate

26 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 42

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET
8406 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026
$0.00
$-9.99
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026
$0.00
$-5.99
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET
6000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026
$0.00
$-5.99
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET
939 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
908 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
622 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 21, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
UP
BNB Up or Down - July 27, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
600 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026
$0.00
$-6.00

Recent activity

REDEEMBNB Up or Down - July 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 13:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - July 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$1.35Jul 28, 13:44 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - July 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 12:56 UTC
TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 28, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$6.40Jul 28, 12:54 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$6.42Jul 28, 11:59 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 07:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET$6.42Jul 28, 07:14 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$0.00Jul 28, 04:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$6.29Jul 28, 04:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET$6.33Jul 28, 03:59 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET$0.11Jul 27, 10:57 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET$0.12Jul 27, 10:56 UTC
REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$0.16Jul 27, 10:56 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$0.20Jul 27, 10:56 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$0.22Jul 27, 10:56 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - May 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET$0.23Jul 27, 10:56 UTC
REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$0.23Jul 27, 10:56 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$0.25Jul 27, 10:56 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 7, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$0.30Jul 27, 10:56 UTC
REDEEMDogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$0.30Jul 27, 10:55 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

55/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 26 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity24 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence87 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry43 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 8
Avg trade size: $5.27
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 26, 15:37 UTC
Last active: Jul 28, 13:46 UTC
Win rate sample: 26 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 16:29:04 UTC·src:Polymarket Data