Tart-Dough
0x82e403af10bdf1d618aff1b2c51da3997cff9643
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-6.4K
Realised
$-133.74
Win rate
45%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
1345 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?
1250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET
880 shares @ 14.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-123.63
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
837 shares @ 15.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026$0.00
$-133.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
667 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
597 shares @ 11.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-70.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
596 shares @ 9.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-55.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
548 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-35.53
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TAKER_REBATE$1.54Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$98.81Jul 17, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$83.47Jul 17, 18:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$61.87Jul 17, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET$82.97Jul 17, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$10.65Jul 17, 17:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$132.39Jul 17, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$82.58Jul 17, 17:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$112.68Jul 17, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$82.46Jul 17, 17:45 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$114.90Jul 17, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$83.25Jul 17, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$10.58Jul 17, 17:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$12.47Jul 17, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$82.91Jul 17, 17:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$2.64Jul 17, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$17.83Jul 17, 17:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$97.05Jul 17, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$82.72Jul 17, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET$21.15Jul 17, 17:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $42.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 13:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.