Rare-Litigation
0x82f194b72831b67d94ac30088d4baad99c0789c4
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$186.22
Total PnL
$-59.30
Realised
$0.02
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
500 shares @ 8.1¢·now 23.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$118.25
$77.75
- NO
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?
20 shares @ 86.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$16.70
$-0.50
- NO
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30?
15 shares @ 91.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$12.97
$-0.68
- NO
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference?
20 shares @ 58.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$11.50
$-0.10
- NO
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027?
20 shares @ 45.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$8.50
$-0.50
- NO
Will Cícero Lucena win the Governor of Paraíba election?
20 shares @ 62.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$8.30
$-4.10
- NO
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?
20 shares @ 43.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jun 22, 2026$7.50
$-1.10
- NO
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
20 shares @ 13.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jun 23, 2026$2.50
$-0.10
- YES
Will Trump say "Japan" or "Korea" during events with Xi Jinping?
500 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-130.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$12.20Jun 14, 21:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference?$7.27Jun 14, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference?$7.34Jun 14, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference?$7.27Jun 14, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Jerome" or "Powell" during June Press Conference?$7.34Jun 14, 21:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netherlands be the highest-scoring team in Group F during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$12.20Jun 14, 20:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?$19.70Jun 14, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?$19.70Jun 14, 19:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?$6.02Jun 14, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?$3.24Jun 14, 19:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?$16.59Jun 14, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30?$16.60Jun 14, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference?$11.60Jun 14, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?$0.75Jun 14, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?$0.77Jun 14, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?$0.75Jun 14, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?$0.77Jun 14, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?$3.22Jun 14, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?$3.30Jun 14, 18:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?$12.01Jun 14, 17:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $8.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 14, 11:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 21:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.