Naive-Earthquake-Cascade
0x8312ac70e76917d93338ef59d4d060991242b7f7
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$20.12
Total PnL
$-4.89
Realised
$-0.02
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 18?
5 shares @ 65.3¢·now 60.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$2.76
$-0.24
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?
2 shares @ 42.5¢·now 43.6¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on August 19?
1 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on August 18?
1 shares @ 99.2¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in August?
1 shares @ 96.6¢·now 96.7¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 18?
1 shares @ 98.9¢·now 98.7¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$1.00
$-0.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on August 19?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.1¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$1.00
$-0.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 21?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.6¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$1.00
$-0.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on August 18?
1 shares @ 97.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$1.00
$-0.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 18?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on August 18?$2.06Aug 18, 11:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18?$0.93Aug 18, 11:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 18?$1.02Aug 18, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 18?$1.02Aug 18, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on August 18?$1.02Aug 18, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?$1.04Aug 18, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 18?$1.03Aug 18, 11:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 18?$1.02Aug 18, 11:20 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on August 18?$0.92Aug 18, 11:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 18?$1.05Aug 18, 11:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on August 18?$1.00Aug 18, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on August 20?$1.00Aug 18, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 18?$1.01Aug 18, 11:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on August 21?$1.00Aug 18, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on August 19?$1.00Aug 18, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 18?$1.07Aug 18, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 on August 18?$1.00Aug 18, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 20?$1.03Aug 18, 11:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on August 20?$1.03Aug 18, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 18?$1.02Aug 18, 11:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $1.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 17, 11:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 11:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.