0x83497df641fa64e07427e9d82474d80a11e3bb03
0x83497df641fa64e07427e9d82474d80a11e3bb03
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
107
Open notional
$11.68
Total PnL
$-583.36
Realised
$-24.69
Win rate
67%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 107- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on March 29?
3 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$3.47
$0.83
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 29?
3 shares @ 75.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$3.31
$0.80
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 29?
3 shares @ 72.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$3.11
$0.86
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on March 29?
2 shares @ 77.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$1.79
$0.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on April 7?
2586 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-4.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 7?
2500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-7.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 10?
2464 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-9.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 20°C on April 11?
2068 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-32.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 9?
1902 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-7.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on April 11?
1429 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 12?$13.55Jul 19, 17:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 12?$33.88Jul 19, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 12?$4.25Apr 12, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 12?$1.98Apr 12, 09:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 12?$10.07Apr 12, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 12?$2.24Apr 12, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 12?$2.14Apr 12, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 12?$2.67Apr 12, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 12?$0.28Apr 12, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 12?$2.67Apr 12, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 12?$8.00Apr 12, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 12?$2.88Apr 12, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 12?$1.14Apr 12, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 12?$1.52Apr 12, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 12?$4.61Apr 12, 08:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 12?$10.00Apr 12, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 12?$4.86Apr 12, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 12?$1.02Apr 12, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on April 12?$4.12Apr 12, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 12?$2.21Apr 12, 07:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $2.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 11, 10:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 17:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.