0x834e50539ab0895e0d785ded1a5c239438e16d63
0x834e50539ab0895e0d785ded1a5c239438e16d63
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$1.03
Total PnL
$-5.07
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 5?
1 shares @ 96.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026$1.03
$0.03
- UP
XRP Up or Down on February 3?
4 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3?
3 shares @ 68.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.13
- UP
Solana Up or Down - February 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
2 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.98
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
2 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.98
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$1.00Feb 13, 21:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Feb 13, 21:32 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$1.01Feb 13, 21:32 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?$0.93Feb 13, 21:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$2.18Feb 13, 21:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?$0.55Feb 13, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$2.20Feb 5, 04:55 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President by March 31?$1.00Feb 5, 04:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$1.00Feb 5, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 5?$1.00Feb 5, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by March 31?$1.00Feb 5, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$1.00Feb 3, 05:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$0.99Feb 3, 05:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$0.98Feb 3, 05:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3?$2.13Feb 3, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?$1.00Feb 3, 05:14 UTC
- TRADESELLKevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?$0.95Feb 3, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum reach $5,000 in February?$1.00Feb 3, 05:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Solana dip to $80 in February?$0.96Feb 3, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down on February 3?$1.00Feb 3, 05:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 68/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $1.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 3, 04:37 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 13, 21:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.