Lucky-Macaroon
0x836be67c72658638c1dafc8c2812af0899a7919b
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
4
Open notional
$29.48
Total PnL
$11.16
Realised
$-0.33
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- THUNDER
Spread: Spurs (-1.5)
10 shares @ 49.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$10.20
$5.20
- NO
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score
10 shares @ 41.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$9.76
$5.76
- SABRES
Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)
10 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$9.52
$3.52
- GOLDEN KNIGHTS
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
11 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score$4.12Jul 14, 15:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Golden Knights (-1.5)$3.06Jun 8, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Spurs (-1.5)$5.08May 22, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Canadiens (-1.5)$6.07May 15, 17:26 UTC
- REDEEMKings vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5$10.00May 15, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYKings vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5$4.90Mar 24, 13:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $4.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 24, 13:59 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 15:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.